23 February: The 57th Anniversary of the Deportation of the Chechen and Ingush NationsREDEFINING THE CHECHEN CHALLENGE
By Paul Goble
On the 57th anniversary of Stalin's mass deportation of
the Chechen and Ingush peoples in 1944, a Russian general has
suggested that the current fighting in Chechnya more closely
resembles the fighting that took place between Soviet forces
and Baltic nationalists following Moscow's occupation of the
Baltic states in 1945 than it does a guerilla war.
In an interview published in last week's "Obshchaya
gazeta," Major General Vladimir Dudnik says that the ongoing
conflict in Chechnya is not a guerilla war as most Moscow
officials and commentators now suggest. Instead, he
suggested, it is very much like the kind of conflict that
took place between Baltic nationalists who retreated into the
woods at the end of World War II to resist Soviet occupation
of their countries.
That conflict, although little commented upon at the
time, lasted more than a decade, Dudnik points out, and "the
Baltic region was conquered only in 1956." But despite Soviet
victories in that battle, Dudnik notes, Moscow ultimately
lost that contest because Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian
nationalists never gave up their desire for independence, and
Moscow "let them go in 1991."
On the one hand, Dudnik's comments may appear to be
little more than the complaint of an army officer who feels
that his political masters have made a terrible mistake.
After all, the greater part of the interview consists of
Dudnik's criticisms of President Vladimir Putin's decision
last month to put the internal security forces rather than
the army in charge of operations in Chechnya. Dudnik suggests
that the military "will never obey the Chekists."
But on the other hand, the general's remarks call
attention to a broader effort among some Russian analysts to
rethink the Chechen conflict both militarily and politically.
In some ways, that discussion has been prompted by shifts in
the way the fighting there has been discussed by Russian
government officials.
At various times, Russian officials have described their
efforts in Chechnya as combatting a guerilla war, conducting
a counterinsurgency operation, and fighting international
terrorism on Russian soil. Each of these terms reflects some
of how the Russian government views the situation, but the
use of so many terms suggests that Moscow is neither able nor
willing to define the Chechen problem more precisely.
That in turn has provided an opening for the kind of
analysis General Dudnik has made, an analysis that suggests
that the roots of the Chechen challenge are inherently
political and that Moscow will only be able to resolve that
challenge through political rather than military means.
By drawing an analogy with the Baltic countries, Dudnik
is implicitly warning Russian officials not to assume that
victories on the battlefield or the arrest of Chechen leaders
will end the Chechen yearning for freedom and independence.
Such victories will only buy the Russian authorities a little
time until the Chechens are able to resume their challenge to
Moscow.
Chechen history would seem to provide ample support for
Dudnik's analysis. In the 18th century, the Chechens under
Mansur resisted Russian encroachment. In the 19th century,
they supported Shamil in his fight against the Russian
empire. In the early Soviet period, they resisted Soviet
Russian reoccupation. And in 1933-34, they participated in a
North Caucasus revolt against Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
When Stalin ordered their mass deportation to Central
Asia on 23 February 1944, the Chechens' fortunes appeared to
be exhausted. Almost half of the Chechen men, women and
children sent in boxcars from their ancestral homeland died
either on the way or upon arrival.
But after Stalin's death, the Chechens were
rehabilitated and allowed to return. And as the Soviet Union
collapsed, they declared their independence from the USSR. In
the decade since, Russian forces have twice tried to break
the Chechens to their will. Most recently, Russian President
Putin has been claiming a kind of victory there as part of an
effort to build his own authority.
But on this anniversary, Dudnik's words serve as a
reminder of how far from defeating the Chechens Moscow still
is. As the general points out, Putin may "need this war, but
Russia does not." The price of continuing to pursue a
political conflict by military means, Dudnik suggests, is
simply "too high."
Copyright (c) 2001. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.org
Further information:
Russia: Chechen Foreign Minister Defiant On Deportation Anniversary
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