Managed resistance
By Ruslan Isayev
The mutual accusations of collaboration with the FSB being hurled at one another by representatives of the Chechen resistance movement now have a true basis in reality. Deliberately or not, the accusations play into the hands of the Russian special services. They include the charge brought by Akhmed Zakayev against Dokka Umarov of betraying the interests and independence of Ichkeria in contravention of the principles of the Ichkerian Constitution, and the accusation which boomeranged back at him of complicity in the murder of Aslan Maskhadov and Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev, and in the attempted assassination of Dokka Umarov.
Not even the years of terrible ordeals have apparently given Chechens the wisdom to refrain from ingratiating themselves with the enemy. Russia wanted its own Al-Qaeda and now it has got it, in the form of a Caucasian Emirate led by ex-Ichkerian President Umarov.
Despite appearances to the contrary, the resistance movement in the Caucasus is still able to influence political life in the region to a greater or lesser extent. Anyone who thinks otherwise should try to imagine that it is now 2013, and that in a couple of months’ time the Winter Olympics will be held in Sochi. What country would be willing to send its team to the North Caucasus, where it might be blown up and where the number of militants killed in the space of a year is almost the same as the number of victims among the police?
According to the statutes of the International Olympic Committee, the Olympic Games should take place far away from zones of military conflict like the North Caucasus. The region’s proximity to the unrecognized state of Abkhazia, which is at war with Georgia, the mass ferment of people discontented with the governments of Karachayevo-Cherkessia or Kabardino-Balkaria – by the year 2013 all of this may have shrunk the perimeter of the zone of security to proportions that render the holding of sporting events impossible.
But will it happen? And will the resistance movement, which despite the assurances of the Russian authorities that separatism in the region is a dead cause, continue to grow and have a central command? That is unlikely, as it is a managed resistance, and the “manager” will direct its energies in the required direction.
The creation of a Caucasian Emirate fits into Russia’s historic rivalry with the United States. America has an enemy – Al-Qaeda, and Russia has now witnessed the emergence of its own adversary – a virtual Emirate, which the Russian special services claim is somehow linked with international terrorism, that is, with Al-Qaeda. Why does Russia need this? Would it not be easier to simply hush the problem up, especially given the assurances of some representatives of the Russian government that the guerrillas will be eliminated by the middle of next year?
In my view, Russia is driven not only by purely pragmatic interests, but also by a desire to show that it is also a power that is capable of waging war on international terrorism. Islamic radicalism, which has been examined from every aspect, is no longer a threat. At the Lubyanka it has apparently been realized that it is easier to manage the resistance or push it to take the necessary decisions – though the probable result is unknown. And it is also easier to unite Russian Christian society in the face of the threat of Islamic oppression.
And what will happen if, as a counterpart to "Islamic radicalism", a “Christian radicalism” organizes itself? All the conditions for this are there. Indeed, even the most sceptical military leaders are inclined to perceive social causes in the present growth of the resistance movement. The low standard of living in Russia, the high mortality rate, the alcoholism, the wide gap between the different sectors of the population, the monstrous level of corruption and, in addition, the return to a totalitarian form of government – are these not a reason for the rise of insurgent tendencies in Russia itself? All this is perfectly possible. The notorious Ukrainian Slavophile Dmitry Korchinsky once said that Russian Wahhabism will be much more terrible that the Islamic variety: "It will show no mercy to its enemies."
By conducting these squabbles, both Zakayev and Umarov are successfully accomplishing their mission. The mechanism by means of which they are fulfilling their function has long been working almost without interruption. After all, to get out of a vicious game like this is tantamount to death – the life expectancy of a sacked pawn is quite a short one.
(Translation by DM) (T)
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