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Chechnya after the election of the deputy to Russia's State Duma

Chechnya after the Election of the Deputy to Russian State Duma

Musa Tumsoyev for Prague Watchdog

The current conflict is the third one in the post-Soviet history of Russia and Chechnya. The first two conflicts ended in the military defeat of Russia and the political defeat of Chechnya.

In a short period of time from a historical point of view, the conflicting sides went through three stages: 1991-1992 – state of emergency, 1994-1996 – introduction of „constitutional order", 1999-… realization of a „counter-terrorist operation". Contemporary Russian historians describe the last decade as „an era of one president", while the Chechnians describe it as a period of systematic genocide of the Chechen nation, disregarding the way in which the conflict ends. In historical memory of the Chechen nation, Yeltsin will always be associated with this tragedy, in the same way as Stalin is associated with the deportation of the Chechens in 1944-1957.

Disregarding the continuing military operations in Chechnya there were elections of the deputy to the Russian State Duma - one more step to „bind" Chechnya to the Russian constitutional system. For nearly 10 years, the federation has not been able to "tame" its 89th subject. Despite the fact that the federal government wasn’t at all interested in the conditions (democratisation) and possibilities (legitimacy) of realizing elections there, Chechnya now has its deputy in the Russian State Duma. Experience from the former elections revealed that those factors are virtually meaningless as far as „high" politics is concerned; and having a Chechen deputy in the State Duma is surely a concern of "high" politics. In the outcome, the inhabitants of the republic now have their Russian deputy, however he is not the choice of the people of Chechnya.

The election itself was not considered to be a significant political event in the life of the Chechen society. At the same time, the role and importance of the freshly elected deputy to the State Duma cannot be overestimated. With all their passivity and the fact that they practically ignored the election, the inhabitants aren’t indifferent to who actually became the deputy. Once it becomes inevitable to have a deputy, to have at least an „acceptable person" for the deputy is quite an intelligible request. A. Aslakhanov - the deputy to the State Duma- is according to these considerations the most suitable figure from the candidates. His activity should be directed towards bringing a positive influence on the situation and bringing about a ceasefire in Chechnya.

The election of A.Aslakhanov is supposed to be followed by the creation of a team, which will be capable of controlling power and influencing social and political processes in the republic. The creation of a new political elite will start the struggle for Russian supremacy in Chechnya. The stability of the position of A.Kadyrov- the present chief of Chechen interim administration - is based on the assistance of the Russian higher political administration. His effort to gain the support of powerful Chechen „teips" and religious authorities doesn’t have any solid base. The absence of real power excludes the possibility of being supported by the population. The federal center is the main point of support, to which the rising political elite can appeal in case that there’s need to deal with the political opponents when their personal supremacy is endangered.

The status of the chief of the interim administration sharply weakens the possibility of political survival. Many are biding their time as they know that the replacement of the chief of administration will cause a change in the „ruling" elite. In such circumstances the supporters of the pro-Russian administration are interested in the quick realization of the local government elections. However, the Federal Center believes that Chechnya doesn’t provide the conditions and possibilities for such a campaign. Defining the problem in this way is inadequate after the election of the deputy to the Russian State Duma. Further on the political influence of „elected" leaders can increase and their fight with the military-police regime for change in the distribution of power within the government can be enhanced, which naturally evokes worry in the military-political administration of Russia. At the same time, there doesn’t exist a single political group in Chechnya that would be able to compete for a political post within the wider Russian extent. It is practically impossible for them to integrate into the federal political elite.

The legitimate government led by the president A. Maskhadov is naturally the most powerful force that determines the situation in Chechnya. Inhabitants take the henchmen of the president for the leaders of Chechen revolt. The contrasting relationship with Russia helps to maintain one's political influence in Chechnya. During wartime, for a particular period of time, the forces consolidate despite some previous discrepancies. The mentioned political elite, unlike the others who have just appeared on the scene, has a steady nucleus, represented by the army. The influence and authority of A. Maskhadov and his followers in a lot of respects depend not only on their own activities, but also on both the activity and passivity of the Russian governments concerning their social and economical support of the population or on overcoming the legal despotism in Chechen relationships. Moreover there exists a wish to start the talks with the combatant side about the peaceful regulation of relationships and determination of the political status of Chechnya.

New political forces will continually struggle for the support of the Chechen nation, which will enable them to realize their tasks. Inside and outside of each political force there exist also other political figures, willing to strive for leadership. In this way, the political elite formed around A. Aslakhanov can tend to politicians such as R.Khasbulatov and S. Khadgyev. In the political field where A. Kadyrov „plays" with his opponents, we can expect to meet figures like B. Gantamirov or L. Magomadov. Influence among combatants can rival the famous field commanders such as S. Basayev and R. Gelayev. Still, they are not able to weaken the position of A. Maskhadov at the present time as it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the Chechen president holds the position of Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces.

At the present time there are three significant political groups, which are going to play an important role in the social and political situation in Chechnya. According to their influence and significance, a triangle of names can be constructed: Maskhadov-Kadyrov-Aslakhanov. At the same time, the role of each of the mentioned political figures can change at any time. There can also appear new political forces, which will affect the present affairs. There remains one single question considering the influence of the Russian military–political situation. The above mentioned Chechen political groups may have interests opposed to this force.

Under the present conditions, there is no need for any apolitical elite and civic structures in Chechnya. Russian and Chechen scientists, cultural and religious elite have almost no influence on whether the war will actually end and peace will be established. Chechnya is in the hands of soldiers and the republic's inhabitants seem to be their hostages.

To summarise, when characterizing the social and political situation in Chechnya, we can state that the present conflict has gradually changed into what had actually been expected to happen: guerilla warfare and the establishment of martial law in the republic. Both fighting sides have already experienced this reality. There cannot be any winners in this situation.

Russia will always have a lot of difficulties, which will make it impossible for her to gain a final victory. To the most compelling difficulties belong: the impossibility of declaring Chechnya and the Chechen nation a state enemy formation (Chechnya is formally an integral part of the Russian Federation and the Chechens are inhabitants of Russia), the absence of wider support of the Chechen population, which is confined to open hatred. Moreover, Russia can’t endlessly fight and win without having a precise portrait of its opponent. Chechnya has a number of difficulties as well, which also makes it impossible for her to be victorious in the present conflict: lack of sufficient military, material, human and other resources, military potential far beyond comparison with the opponent, impossibility of gaining support from other countries, huge irrecoverable casualties. On the other hand, Russia can’t stop military actions as it would mean confessing the inability to fulfil the given tasks. Clearing the territory of Chechnya will be regarded as a true defeat. Chechnya similarly can’t stop military actions as it would be regarded as a surrender of independence, which supports the whole ideology of the conflict.

The following suggestions try to outline a possible way of solving the conflict and the existing discrepancies: disarmament of illegal armed formations carried out by the legitimate government of Chechnya with the support of the population, demilitarization of the republic, new presidential and parliamentary elections. At the same time, Russia should recognize Chechnya as an independent state. In other words – military victory of Russia in exchange for political victory of Chechnya. This will allow both sides to „save their faces" and meet the interests of both sides.

© Prague Watchdog